UK Economy
The cost of living crisis in the UK is making itself felt more and more, and some experts have warned that recession could come sooner than expected. Recent data has shown a further weakening of the British economy.
Market Overview
US CPI
All eyes on the US Consumer Price Index. According to the New York Fed survey of consumer expectations in July, Americans expect inflation to decline to 6.2% over the next year, from 6.8% in the June survey result, and to 3.2% over the next three years, from 3.6%.
FED
Last week the focus was on the ECB raising its three key interest rates by 50 basis points. This week it’s the Federal Reserve’s turn. Days prior to the Fed’s policy statement, markets were pricing in another 75 basis point increase in the benchmark rate, same as at the June meeting.
ECB
Europe is in a pressing situation. Inflation is running high as the war in Ukraine persist, exacerbating the rise in prices, especially energy and food. CPI in the euro area increased to an all-time high of 8.6% in June 2022.
US Retail Sales
Following Wednesday’s higher-than-expected CPI data in the US, markets were considering the possibility of a full percentage point increase at the July Fed meeting.
US CPI
Market fears appear to be proliferating in a highly uncertain environment. The main concerns relate to the impact of the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes on US growth, the energy crisis in the Euro area and the possibility of a new lockdown in China.
Nonfarm Payroll
Following the release of the minutes of the June Fed meeting, policy makers and investors are now looking ahead for new data. Today the focus is on the June employment report and next Wednesday on the consumer price index.
Euro area CPI
All eyes remain on inflation and central banks’ policy decisions to tame it. The ECB will be watched closely this month as the interest rate is expected to rise for the first time in 11 years.
US PCE Price Index
The PCE price index, a key indicator of inflation in the US, was released today and core data showed that inflation slowed in May. The stock market remains volatile as the Fed struggles to keep inflation under control.
Euro Area PMI
The cost of living crisis continues to weigh on consumers. Flash consumer confidence in the Euro area fell to -23.6 in June 2022, a further decline from -21.2 in May and closer to the all-time low reached in April 2020 when the pandemic first hit.
