US CPI

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Inflation persists amid a highly uncertain environment and a volatile market. On Tuesday, the IMF published its latest World Economic Outlook Report and highlighted that the cost-of-living crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s slowdown are adversely impacting the forecast. The IMF’s global growth estimate for 2022 remains unchanged at 3.2% in 2022, but it has been revised down to 2.7% in 2023 (from 2.9% seen in the July projections). The IMF also estimates that the rate of global inflation would increase to 8.8% in 2022 before falling to 6.5% in 2023 and 4.1% by 2024.

Yesterday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI), a gauge of wholesale inflation. The PPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in September 2022, twice the market forecast (year-over-year PPI rose 8.5%).

Today’s inflation data was closely followed to assess the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike at the November meeting, where a fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points is highly expected. Right after the data was released, the CME FedWatch Tool was showing 88.4% probability of a 75 basis point increase.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in September 2022, down from 8.3% in August, but slightly above the market forecast of 8.1%. Core CPI increased to 6.6% in September 2022, from 6.3% of the prior month and higher than the market forecast of 6.5%.

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. All market prices, data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Aleph Finance, or its affiliates.

Aleph Finance is a trading name of UCapital Asset Management LLP.

UCapital Asset Management is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
UCapital Asset Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.

Registered Company number OC333807.

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Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments and any income from them is not guaranteed and may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.

Aleph Finance is a trading name of Pairstech Capital Management LLP.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.
Registered Company number OC333807.

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Aleph Finance is a trading name of Pairstech Capital Management LLP.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.
Registered Company number OC333807.

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