After yesterday’s OPEC+ meeting, today the focus of investors will be on Nonfarm Payrolls. The employment report is particularly relevant in this historical period. Eyes of market participants will be not only the numbers, but also on the participation rate and other qualitative elements that make up the Nonfarm Payrolls report. With employment levels still well below pre-pandemic levels and inflation on the rise, December’s data is particularly important.
Nonfarm Payrolls for October exceeded analysts’ estimates with a net of 531,000 units against the forecast of 450,000 units. The ADP figure published on Wednesday, was higher than expected (534 thousand units against the consensus of 525 thousand), but lower than the previous survey.
The newly released Nonfarm Payrolls data showed a sharp decline compared to the consensus. With an actual figure of 210,000 units against expectations of 546,000 units, November is the month with the slowest job growth in the last 12 months. The unemployment rate fell further to 4.2%, while the participation rate rose from 61.6% to 61.8%.
Salary dynamics still seem to be under control with hourly earnings that, at least for the moment, do not seem to be on the rise. The year-on-year figure for average hourly earnings comes out at 4.8%, stable compared with the previous figure (revised downwards from 4.9%) and missing analysts’ estimates for an increase to 5%.
The reaction of the markets was tepid with the main indices still positive both in Europe and futures in the United States. Commodities also showed little movement, with oil contracts holding steady at levels prior to the publication of Nonfarm payrolls data.
