Nonfarm Payroll

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This week’s focus was on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on monetary policy to the Congress and the US labor market data. On Tuesday, Chair Powell stated that “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated”, altering how markets viewed the next rate increase and the terminal rate. Prior to Powell’s remarks, the CME FedWatch Tool was pricing in a 25bps hike at the next meeting in March, shifting after to 50 bps. A return to half a percentage point would mean an increase in pace from the previous three hikes, where it slowed from 75bps to 50bps and then to 25bps. Inflation remains well above the central bank’s 2% target. All eyes will be on the next release of CPI data on March 14, ahead of the FOMC meeting.

The latest US jobs report continued to show a strong labor market, despite high borrowing costs and consumer prices. On Wednesday, the ADP report showed that 242.000 private payrolls were added in February 2023, from un upwardly revised 119.000 in January and above market forecasts of 200.000.

Today, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly increased by 311.000 in February 2023, well above market forecasts of 205.000. The US unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in February 2023, above market forecasts of 3.4%. Year-over-year average hourly earnings increased by 4.6%, slightly below market forecasts.  

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. All market prices, data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Aleph Finance, or its affiliates.

Aleph Finance is a trading name of UCapital Asset Management LLP.

UCapital Asset Management is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
UCapital Asset Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.

Registered Company number OC333807.

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Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments and any income from them is not guaranteed and may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.

Aleph Finance is a trading name of Pairstech Capital Management LLP.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.
Registered Company number OC333807.

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Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments and any income from them is not guaranteed and may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.

Aleph Finance is a trading name of Pairstech Capital Management LLP.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.
Registered Company number OC333807.

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