Market Overview

US FOMC 21/11/2023

During the FOMC meeting of November 1st emerged that interest rates were raised in the last year to counter inflation and bring it back to 2%. This policy was successful in 2023, with increases stopping in July and two consecutive periods of unchanged rates between 5.25% and 5.50%. On the other hand, recent inflation data show a deceleration in the consumer price index, with a lower-than-expected increase (“Consumer price inflation remained elevated but continued to show signs of slowing”). This had raised hopes for possible rate cuts as early as May 2024, but it seems that it will not be so.

US Inflation rate 14/11/2023

The annual inflation rate slowed to 3.2% in October from 3.7% in September and August. Energy costs dropped by 4.5%, with significant declines in gasoline, utility gas service, and fuel oil. Prices increased for food, shelter, and new vehicles. The annual core consumer price inflation rate edged down to an over two-year low of 4% in October, from 4.1% in the prior month.

Michigan consumer sentiment for the US 10/11/2023

Today, November 10th, 2023, the University of Michigan revised the consumer sentiment level at 60.4 (-5.3% M-M change), while the consensus was at 63.7. This figure is the lowest it has been since May, and consumer sentiment has been on a downward trend for four consecutive months since July high. The indicators for current economic conditions and consumer expectations also experienced a decline, falling to 65.7 and 56.9 respectively.

Fed Interest Rate Decision 1/11/2023

On November 1st, the Fed kept the interest rates unchanged, but did not rule out a possible hike in the future. The policy statement recognized the strong growth of the U.S. economy in the third quarter, but also mentioned the challenges faced by businesses and households due to higher market rates. The Fed said it would monitor economic data and inflation to decide how much more policy tightening might be needed to bring inflation back to 2%.

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting 26/10/2023

Inflation in Europe is declining but remains high, therefore out of target (in Italy: in August 5.44%, September 5.34%; in France: in August 4.9%, September 4.9%; in UK: in August 6.7%, in September 6.7%). This is influenced by geo-political events, first of all the conflict between Israel and Palestine, which causes risks to the energy sector, with the price of oil remaining high (BRENT: $88) further adding inflationary pressures.

Nonfarm Payroll

The US labor market remains strong, but it is starting to show signs of cooling.

FED

After halting in June, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a quarter percentage point rate hike at its July 2023 meeting.

US CPI

All eyes were on the US inflation published by the US Bureau of Statistics today. Both headline and core data slowed in June 2023.

Nonfarm Payroll

The US labor market remained resilient. Today, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 209.000 in June 2023.

Euro area CPI

Consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 5.5% in June 2023, from 6.1% the prior month.

Aleph Finance is a trading name of UCapital Asset Management LLP.

UCapital Asset Management is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
UCapital Asset Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.

Registered Company number OC333807.

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Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments and any income from them is not guaranteed and may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.

Aleph Finance is a trading name of Pairstech Capital Management LLP.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.
Registered Company number OC333807.

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Aleph Finance is a trading name of Pairstech Capital Management LLP.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized and regulated by the FCA – Financial Conduct Authority – with registration number 477155.
Pairstech Capital Management LLP is authorized as third country firm without a branch by CONSOB with registration number 54.
Registered Company number OC333807.

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